Migration and the Federal Budget: A case of missing numbers?

For all the anticipation surrounding the 2025-26 Federal Budget, those looking for major announcements on Australia’s migration program may ask: where’s the detail? Despite migration being a key driver of Australia’s economic growth, the Federal Budget papers and Home Affairs portfolio budget statements offered surprisingly little insight into migration program numbers or major policy shifts.

What wasn’t said: The silence on migration numbers

One of the most notable omissions from this year’s budget is the lack of an official migration intake announcement. While previous budgets have provided clear planning levels for permanent migration, this year’s documents leave those figures noticeably absent.

Instead, the budget commentary on migration focuses on broad themes—visa integrity, compliance, and digital transformation—without providing specific targets or quotas. This raises questions for businesses and immigration professionals alike:

• Will migration levels be adjusted?
• Is the government planning to reduce intake or maintain current settings?
• What does this mean for employers relying on skilled migration pathways?

Without clear figures, businesses and migration stakeholders are left waiting for further clarification in the coming months.

What we do know: Migration Program allocations

While specifics on program numbers are missing, the budget does provide some funding allocations across visa and migration programs:

1. Migration Program ($315.2 million) - No announcement on planning levels, but a focus on visa integrity and employer-sponsored migration.
2. Visa processing and management ($534.5 million) - Continued investment in digital transformation to streamline visa applications.
3. Humanitarian and refugee programs ($862.1 million) - Funding adjustments suggest a slight shift in global resettlement priorities.
4. Offshore processing and unauthorised maritime arrivals management ($580.7 million) - Expected cost reductions over time.

Net overseas migration (NOM): A policy in flux

Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) is projected to stabilise after a period of post-pandemic increases. The government is actively managing migration levels by:

• Prioritising permanent skilled migration over temporary visas
• Enhancing compliance measures to prevent visa overstays
• Aligning migration intake with labour market needs while addressing housing and infrastructure pressures.

NOM trends and projections

• 2024-25: Higher migration levels as the government processes visa backlogs.
• 2025-26 and beyond: A calibrated migration intake, reducing reliance on temporary workers while supporting long-term economic growth.

2023-24	2024-2025	2025-2026	2026-2027
435,000	335,000	260,000	225,000

The business perspective: What does this mean for employers?

For businesses and corporate immigration professionals, the lack of clear migration targets adds to the uncertainty. Key takeaways include:

• Employer-sponsored migration remains a priority, but clarity on numbers is still needed
• Visa processing efficiencies are in the works, but immediate improvements are unclear
• Tighter compliance measures mean businesses must stay vigilant with compliance.